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Asia's GDP growth could fall to 2.4% amid Middle East fuel risks, IMF warns

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IMF warns Asia’s reliance on Middle East fuel leaves it most exposed to the conflict, with growth potentially falling to 2.4% in a downside scenario. (Photo: iStock)

IMF warns Asia’s reliance on Middle East fuel leaves it most exposed to the conflict, with growth potentially falling to 2.4% in a downside scenario. (Photo: iStock)

Diesel prices have surged to three to four times pre-crisis levels, pushing up costs across Asia and adding pressure to an already heavy energy import bill. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that Asia’s reliance on Middle East fuel leaves it more exposed to the ongoing conflict than any other region.

On the sidelines of the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington from April 13 to 18, Thailand and Singapore made a joint case that the scale of disruption has moved beyond what individual countries can manage through domestic policy alone.

Unlock the full article to explore three key takeaways:

  • The IMF warns Asia's oil and gas imports amount to 2.5% of GDP, with regional growth potentially approaching 2.4% in a downside scenario — exposing the long-term cost of structural fuel dependence.
  • Thailand and Singapore are using the crisis to push the ASEAN Power Grid as a multi-year policy agenda, timed to their consecutive ASEAN chairmanships in 2027 and 2028.
  • A new IEA report flags multilateral co-financing as key to unlocking private investment in cross-border interconnectors, while experts say subsea cables are emerging as a potential game changer for regional electricity trade.
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