Pedestrians in the Philippines raise their umbrellas to shield themselves from the sun. (Image: Wayne S. Grazio / Flickr)
As 2024 passes its midpoint, the global climate continues to push into uncharted territory.
Carbon Brief’s analysis indicates a 95% probability that this year will surpass 2023 as the warmest year on record in the Copernicus/ECMWF ERA5 dataset.
This projection emerges amid a series of climate extremes that have marked the first half of 2024.
Here, Carbon Brief assesses the first full six months of 2024 and finds:
- The first six months of 2024 have each set new temperature records, extending an already remarkable streak of 13 consecutive record-breaking months dating back to 2023.
- On 22 July, the world experienced its highest absolute global daily temperature on record, reaching a scorching 17.15C.
- The heat has been felt globally, with 63 countries experiencing their warmest June on record. Over the past 12 months, a staggering 138 countries have recorded their hottest temperatures ever.
- July 2024 is very likely to be the first time in 13 months without a new record, coming in cooler than July 2023. However, it will still be more than 0.2C warmer than any July prior to 2023.
- With El Niño fading and modest La Niña conditions potentially developing later this year, it is unlikely that the extreme monthly temperature records set in the second half of 2023 will be surpassed in 2024.
- Antarctic sea ice extent has fallen to near 2023’s record lows in recent weeks, reflecting the broader trend of polar sea ice loss.
Record warm first half of the year
Global temperatures set a new record for each of the first six months of 2024, extending what was already a string of seven record setting months in 2023.
All in all, each of the last 13 months has been the warmest since records began in the mid-1850s.
The figure below shows how global temperature so far in 2024 (purple line) compares to each month in different years since 1940 (with lines coloured by the decade in which they occurred) in the Copernicus/ECMWF ERA5 surface temperature dataset.
Temperatures for each month from 1940 to 2024 from Copernicus/ECMWF ERA5. Anomalies plotted with respect to a 1850-1900 baseline. Chart by Carbon Brief.
Global temperatures in the latter half of 2023 exceeded prior records by at least 0.3C, peaking in September when 2023 surpassed the previous September record by 0.5C. While 2024 has continued to set records, the margins have been smaller:
- January to April 2024: About 0.1C above previous records (set in 2016)
- May 2024: About 0.2C above the previous record (set in 2020)
- June 2024: About 0.15C above the previous record (set in 2023)
It is important to note that June 2024 is being compared to the already high temperatures set in 2023. Compared to the last major El Niño event in 2016, June 2024 was about 0.4C warmer.
The figure below shows the margin by which global temperatures were set in each of the prior 13 record-setting months.
Margin by which new monthly temperature records have been set over the past 13 months. Using data from Copernicus/ECMWF ERA5. Chart by Carbon Brief.
In this latest quarterly state of the climate assessment, Carbon Brief analyses records from five different research groups that report global surface temperature records: NASA, NOAA, Met Office Hadley Centre/UEA, Berkeley Earth and Copernicus/ECMWF.
