Gas shortage is unlikely to hit Germany next winter, research suggests


Germany is not likely to encounter a gas crisis this winter and should postpone the conversion of floating liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals to fixed ones, a report by the DIW economic institute said.

In the most likely scenario, Germany would have a sufficient supply of roughly 87 billion cubic metres (bcm) this year, if consumption remains 12% below the 2018 to 2021 average, according to the report.

Germany could even bring the total supply to 94 bcm, almost the same level as in previous years, if its import capacities for LNG are used to 95%.

With the LNG terminals in Belgium and the Netherlands, as well as floating facilities in Germany, there is enough import capacity for LNG to meet Germany's expanding demand. "In particular, this can be achieved through a higher willingness to pay than in other world regions," DIW added.

Energy saving measures, supply diversification and warmer winter weather helped keep high gas storage levels, DIW said, but they advised against the construction of further LNG infrastructure, saying that it is not sensible in terms of climate policy.

It also said that the gas industry took advantage of the uncertainty in spring 2022 to build projects much beyond the projected sensible volume.

Germany is phasing out the use of fossil natural gas in the medium term, said the institute, meaning the burning of natural gas must be ended as part of the path to climate neutrality.









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