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EU’s 2040 climate goal faces uncertainty over carbon credits, shrinking sinks

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The EU is considering options that would allow it to revise or weaken its 2040 climate target, originally aimed at cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 90% from 1990 levels. (Photo: iStock)

The European Union is considering options that could allow it to revise or weaken its 2040 climate target in the future. Member states aim to approve the plan at a meeting of climate ministers on Nov. 4, allowing European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to present a finalized target at the United Nations COP30 climate summit on Nov. 6.

When asked whether EU governments would agree on a target ahead of COP30, one EU diplomat told Reuters that the bloc was “walking a knife’s edge.” Support from at least 15 of the 27 EU members is needed to pass the goal.

Shrinking carbon sinks puts pressure on EU climate goal

The European Commission has proposed cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 90%, from 1990 levels, by 2040, but the latest draft compromise introduces a new brake clause. The draft states that if carbon absorption from forests and other land-based activities falls short, the EU could propose “an adjustment of the 2040 intermediate target corresponding to and within the limits of the possible shortfalls.”

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